Summer Mile — Matterhorn

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Matterhorn is the bet in the place market (assuming all eight go to post) in the Summer Mile at Ascot on Saturday July 13.

I am trialling a simulations-based model for selecting value bets and am doing that from both a traditional points-based staking system relating to the perceived value in each bet, as well as a conservative (1/4) Kelly Criterion staking plan. You can keep an eye on the profit and loss here.

These two different plans would see me placing a 2 pt bet on Matterhorn in the place market (1-2-3), or a bet equivalent to 13.08% of my bank, depending on which plan is used.

The model I used that selected Matterhorn as the obvious bet in this race and market essentially suggested his chances of hitting the frame today are considerably better (around 74%, or 1.35) than he can be backed at (around 45%, or 2.2) — making him a great value bet to do just that.

You can view the post that shows how and why Matterhorn was selected here.