Criterion Stakes — Suedois

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Suedois is the bet in the place market (assuming all eight go to post) in the Criterion Stakes at Newmarket on Saturday June 29.

I am trialling a simulations-based model for selecting value bets and am doing that from both a traditional points-based staking system relating to the perceived value in each bet, as well as a conservative (1/4) Kelly Criterion staking plan.

These two different plans would see me placing a 2 pt bet on Suedois in the place market (1-2-3), or a bet equivalent to 10.8% of my bank, depending on which plan is used.

The model I used that selected Suedois as the obvious bet in this race and market essentially suggested his chances of hitting the frame today are considerably better (around 71%, or 1.4) than he can be backed at (around 52%, or 1.92) — making him a great value bet to do just that.

You can view the post that shows how and why Suedois was selected here.