Below is a fully transparent profit/loss account of all bets put forward by the simulations-based modelling approach (all flagged in advance in The Tips section).

The Points Staking Plan approach assumes starting with a bank of 0 points (level), while the ¼ Kelly Criterion Staking Plan assumes starting with a bank of €1,000 (level).

* Profit and loss staking plans assume 5% commission is paid on all winning bets placed on Betfair’s exchange.




Points Staking Plan*



¼ Kelly Criterion Staking Plan*

Outlay P/L Bank Outlay P/L Bank
Suedois, place 2 +1.75 +1.75 10.8%,€108 +€94.39 €1,094.39
Matterhorn, place 2 -2 -0.25 13.1%, €143.15 – €143.15 €951.24