Hong Kong

Racing in Hong Kong provides punters with an interest in data analysis with a uniquely attractive medium from which to seek value.

This is because the horse population is — in relative terms — extremely small (and thus it is easy to keep track of all horses); the race conditions are remarkably uniform (there are effectively only three courses that stage regular racing); the volume of betting turnover is huge (making it easy to place large bets without affecting Tote odds); and there is a huge amount of accurate data provided free of charge by the racing authority (making it easy for modellers to access lots of high quality data for analyses).

From the beginning of the 2019/20 season onwards I am producing sectional-adjusted speed ratings for each and every horse running in each and every race.

These are based on standard times that I have produced following extensive data analysis from previous seasons.

In time, I will use these ratings in tandem with a personally developed simulation modelling approach described elsewhere on this site — and see here and here for a couple of UK races that provide excellent case studies.

The goal is of course to pinpoint value bets and profit from this information.

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