March 29 — Betting Tissue Club race is race 10 from Sha Tin
This week’s betting tissue club race is Race 10 (the highly competitive Class 2 Chak On Handicap). You can view all past races for the runners from the excellent hkjc.com website (click on highlighted link above first).
You can download the betting tissue club calculator (Excel file) here: HKMarch29Race10.
You will need to complete your tissue, save it using a unique file name, and then upload it to this webpage using the secure form below. You should only fill in the odds column (blue) in decimal form (other columns contain formulae that do the calculations for you).
Upload your form before midday on Saturday. Submissions after this time won’t be included. Also remember to check back here later on Saturday to view the summary of all submissions and read my thoughts on the race..
Click on the highlighted link in this sentence for complete information on how the Betting Tissue Club HK will work.
Betting Tissue Summary
Firstly, a big thank-you to everyone who took part. A total of nine people submitted tissues (10 with mine), which I think is very good going given that this is the first week in which the new club is being trialled.
As far as I can tell there were very few teething problems, but I am very keen on hearing feedback if people have ideas/comments that may make things run more smoothly and/or make the experience more worthwhile.
Below is the summary table of all the tissues. Please note the prices in the mean column at the end work out to a book of around 75% (way too generous). The prices in the median column work out to a very fair 101% though, so these give a fairly interesting reference point for our collective thoughts in pricing the race up.
|Hong Kong Bet||19||19.5||22.2||15||5||100||19||21.6||13||55||19.3||19.25|
To explain my process in pricing up the race, I first sorted the horses into a rough order in terms of their likely chances based on my speed ratings, but also on watching their recent runs and taking into account the draw and jockey bookings ahead of Sunday.
For those who had a go this first week without being regular HK watchers, the draw has a huge impact on most races in HK (more so than it would, typically, in the UK or Ireland). The draw at Sha Tin arguably has less of an impact than it does at Happy Valley, but it is still a very important piece of the puzzle. Generally, being drawn low is an advantage, as it means bagging a spot closer to the rail should be easier.
I thought Duke Wai was the standout horse and made him favourite. He has been running to a consistently high level all season and has drawn well here. While he was behind Computer Patch last time — another worth huge respect — he steps back to 6f and I think that will suit him ideally.
Perfect Match has been running to an extremely high level too and deserves plenty of respect with Purton up. Stall 11 isn’t ideal and I’m not sure the drop down from 7f is what he really wants, but he does tend to set the pace so if he can get out and grab a prominent spot it would hardly surprise to see him hit the frame again.
Transcendent got off to a perfect start in HK when winning last time but he is up in grade here and didn’t run a time that blew me away (the others in the race finished in something of a heap too, suggesting the strength of the form wasn’t anything special). He is, however, evidently open to lots more improvement. Of all the runners he is one of the most interesting from an assessment perspective (and this can be seen in the wide range of prices we all came up for him).
I thought Water Diviner, Hong Kong Bet and Shining Ace all had similar chances and priced them accordingly. The latter is, however, the one I struggled most with in this race. On most of his admittedly consistent form he wouldn’t be good enough on my figures, but he regularly finishes with a rattle over this trip at Happy Valley and there is a suspicion that this track may play more to his late-rolling style. Joao Moreira takes over, too, so it will be fascinating to see what price he starts at.
Of the others, both California Whip and Gunnison would have EW chances if bouncing back to their best. The former has looked a bit lost recently though, and while the latter is approaching a competitive mark having dropped in the ratings, he hasn’t shown quite enough to make me think he is a win contender just yet.
Of course, the main idea in compiling a betting tissue pre-race is to use it to help you select value bets (overlays). If a horse is considerably bigger in the win market than you think it should be, then that horse may be worth a bet. Similarly, for those who play the exotics, this approach may highlight horses at bigger prices that you rate more seriously and which may therefore offer some value if included in Exacta/Quinella/Trifecta/Trio perms.
Be sure to watch the race on Sunday if you can (or the replay afterwards on hkjc.com) and look at the HK tote odds afterwards to see where you were wrong in your pricing (allowing of course for the fact that the odds should be stingier than yours across the board given the Tote take-out).
While it is certainly not easy to know why you were wrong on certain horses, I highly encourage everyone to look closer afterwards to see if you may gain some clues as to why this might have been. Often you may see something you missed in past form of such horses that will help you factor it into future pricing.
And, please, keep an eye out for another one of these races next week. I will again aim to notify people of the race and provide all the materials you need on Thursday.