April 12 — Betting Tissue Club race is race 8 from Sha Tin
This week’s betting tissue club race is Race 8 from Sha Tin (the competitive Class 3 Jordan Handicap). You can view all past races for the runners from the excellent hkjc.com website (click on highlighted link above and then on each runner).
You can download the betting tissue club calculator (Excel file) here: STApril12Race8THP
You will need to complete your tissue, save it using a unique file name, and then upload it to this webpage using the secure form below. You should only fill in the odds column (blue) in decimal form (other columns contain formulae that do the calculations for you).
Upload your form before midday (BST / Irish and UK time) on Saturday. Submissions after this time won’t be included. Also remember to check back here later on Saturday to view the summary of all submissions and read my thoughts on the race..
For more complete information on how the Betting Tissue Club HK works, click here.
Thanks as always to everyone who took part. A total of six people submitted tissues (six with mine).
Below is the summary table of all the tissues. This week’s race was, again, a tricky one to get to grips with – although the variation for most runners was much lower than last week, suggesting most of us came to similar conclusions.
With that in mind, I have provided median odds for each horse as the median tissue worked out to 101%, which is almost spot-on.
CONTRIBUTORS’ TISSUE PRICES (100% BOOKS)
|THP||JC||HKR||SB||X||SL||RN||Median||HK TOTE||HK TOTE 100%|
|God Of Dragon||11||41||20||18||51||70||20||20||8.5||10|
|Average Per Runner Difference (%)||2.5||4.9||4.6||3.1||6.3||8.4||9|
I made Enzemble favourite in my book as he has been running to a consistently high level on my ratings in recent spins and the booking of Moreira, who has ridden a number of these with some success this season, catches the eye. I felt he could be excused a slightly underwhelming recent run as the trip (shorter) didn’t play to his strengths and the run of the race wasn’t ideal for his grinding style. His best run to date was his only one at this trip and he is less exposed than most.
The note of caution is that there doesn’t seem to be much pace on in this, and as such, there is a chance it will be slowly run and suit those that want to be ridden prominently. which may well bring Blastoise and God Of Dragon into play. Both have their chances on my ratings.
Of the others, Super Elegance consistently runs figures in the low to mid 90s on my scale, which gives him place prospects if things fall right. He has been peppering the places this season but hasn’t been able to get his head in front. He can go well again with Teetan up but needs a little more to win. Champion Supreme and Naboo Star are others that have been running consistent figures that give them sporting chances. The former has a touch of class at this level but has no secrets from the handicapper.
Beauty Happy has not run a rating that suggests he should be seriously involved but the step up in trip looks sure to suit so he is worth a market check, while Vincy is one I would like to flag (albeit most likely for another day). He has shown enough ability to suggest he can win off this sort of mark when he gets a truly run race. His fourth three starts back showed he has some talent, but he looks like one that wants to pick up the pieces off a strong gallop.
Check back post-race this week as I will add a table that shows how close (collectively) each of us was to getting the prices right based on the HKJC tote odds at the off. This should be interesting, but also give us all an idea of how/if we are progressing over time in putting together accurate tissues.