April 26 — Betting Tissue Club race is race 10 from Sha Tin
This week’s betting tissue club race is Race 9 from Sha Tin (the competitive Class 2 Bullish Luck Handicap). You can view all past races for the runners from the excellent hkjc.com website (click on highlighted link above and then on each runner).
You can download the betting tissue club calculator (Excel file) here: STApril26Race10
You will need to complete your tissue, save it using a unique file name, and then upload it to this webpage using the secure form below. You should only fill in the odds column (blue) in decimal form (other columns contain formulae that do the calculations for you).
Upload your form before midday (BST / Irish and UK time) on Saturday. Submissions after this time won’t be included. Also remember to check back here later on Saturday to view the summary of all submissions and read my thoughts on the race..
For more complete information on how the Betting Tissue Club HK works, click here.
Betting Tissue Summary
Thanks as always to everyone who took part this week. A total of six people submitted tissues (eight with mine).
The median odds for each horse work out to a tissue of around 99%, which is basically a fair tissue and may be of use in trying to squeeze some value out of this race.
|THP||ST||HKR||CJH||RN||SL||H||Median||HK TOTE||HK TOTE 100%|
|Time To Celebrate||101||34||50||19.9||19.8||33.1||21||33.1||23||28.1|
|Band Of Brothers||9||7||20||10.5||32.1||8||13||10.5||9.3||11.4|
|Mean Per Runner Difference (%)||2.5||2.9||4.3||3.4||2.3||3.6||2.7||2.5||2.9|
I made Preciousship my favourite despite his tricky draw in 13. He has been improving at a rate of knots all season and may just have the class to get away with it. He is a hold-up horse so it isn’t perhaps the worst scenario and he ran a deceptively good race last time when caught with a huge amount to do off what had been a very slow early pace.
Butterfield was next in on the back of a solid run at this level when second last time. He was backed as if defeat was out of the question and the suspicion is that he is perhaps a bit better than the bare form, with Moreira sticking with him another big positive.
Band Of Brothers and Monica were joint-third in my book having been running with great consistency and a to a good level all season. Both have to find a tiny bit extra to win at this level but shouldn’t be far away, while the likes of Hezthewonforus, Noble Steed, Star Performance, Cordyceps and General’s Delight can’t be dismissed. The former in particular has a nice weight swing with Preciousship when not beaten far earlier in the season and has drawn fairly well, while the others have – on occasion – hinted at having the ability to hit the frame in a race like this when things drop right.
Be sure to check back after the race to see how your tissue compared with the HK Tote odds (and the HK Tote odds corrected to a 100% book).
This week most of us did pretty well in pricing up the race accurately — my overall mean difference per runner was good (around 2.5% different) but I was too big on the winner, which wasn’t ideal!