May 24– Betting Tissue Club race is race 11 from Sha Tin
This week’s betting tissue club race is Race 11 (the highly competitive Class 2 Viva Pataca Handicap). You can view all past races for the runners from the excellent hkjc.com website (click on highlighted link above first).
You can download the betting tissue club calculator (Excel file) here: Sha Tin May 24 R11 template
You will need to complete your tissue, save it using a unique file name, and then upload it to this webpage using the secure form below. You should only fill in the odds column (blue) in decimal form (other columns contain formulae that do the calculations for you).
Upload your form before midday (Irish/UK time) on Saturday. Submissions after this time won’t be included. Also remember to check back here later on Saturday to view the summary of all submissions and read my thoughts on the race..
Visit Betting Tissue Club HK for more information on how the Club works.
Betting Tissue Summary
Thanks as always to everyone who took part this week. A total of five people submitted tissues (six with mine). One person submitted a blank spreadsheet. Maybe whoever that was just didn’t save it, or attached the wrong file – so sorry if that was you!
The median odds for each horse work out to a tissue of around 95%, which is too generous. As such, you’d expect available odds to be a bit shorter than what appears there.
|
HORSE
|
CONTRIBUTORS |
Median |
HK TOTE |
HK TOTE 100% |
|||||||
| THP | H | CJH | CD | SB | HKR | ||||||
| Good Standing | 34 | 62.3 | 22.5 | 23.2 | 42.0 | 12 | 28.6 | 12 | 14.7 | ||
| Glorious Spectrum | 3.4 | 3.7 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 10.4 | 4 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 4.7 | ||
| Happy Fun | 6.8 | 14.9 | 4.7 | 7.3 | 6.5 | 15 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 5.8 | ||
| King Opie | 81 | 62.3 | 19.7 | 59.9 | 163.3 | 100 | 71.6 | 143 | 175.2 | ||
| Band Of Brothers | 17 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 11.6 | 11.6 | 12 | 11.6 | 12 | 14.7 | ||
| Transcendent | 10 | 6.5 | 9.4 | 10.7 | 9.5 | 10 | 9.7 | 8.7 | 10.7 | ||
| Water Diviner | 13 | 5.6 | 16.9 | 15.2 | 13.8 | 8 | 13.4 | 17 | 20.8 | ||
| Beauty Rush | 26 | 31.6 | 26.3 | 30.4 | 14.8 | 20 | 26.1 | 10 | 12.3 | ||
| Styling City | 81 | 186.9 | 37.5 | 134.9 | 129.7 | 100 | 114.8 | 203 | 248.7 | ||
| Dan Control | 61 | 140.4 | 28.1 | 36.6 | 91.5 | 30 | 48.8 | 80 | 98 | ||
| Green Luck | 67 | 140.4 | 25.3 | 30.4 | 68.3 | 30 | 48.7 | 51 | 62.5 | ||
| Circuit Three | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| Sunny Boy | 21 | 140.4 | 20.6 | 23.2 | 103.7 | 100 | 61.6 | 48 | 58.8 | ||
| Will Power | 6.5 | 7.4 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 7 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 5 | ||
| Mean Per Runner Difference (%) | 2.4 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.9 | |||||
You’ll note that Circuit Three is a non-runner, so for those who had put their tissues together with him included, I have adjusted the odds on your other selections so that they encompass his market share.
I thought Glorious Spectrum’s last run was incredible as he came from a seemingly impossible draw and position to go close in a race at least as strong as this, and in which the horses around him through the early part of the race got absolutely nowhere near the main players. He is better drawn here and really ought to win, assuming he handles potentially softer going.
Next in I have Will Power, who is a bit of a wild card having never run on turf in HK or over this 1400 m trip. He is the least exposed in the race though and has been highly progressive over 1200 m on the AW. He comes home strongly over that trip and must have a good chance here off a light weight if adapting to the new conditions.
Happy Fun is next in for me as he has a good draw, Purton in the saddle, and has been consistent at this sort of level all season. All is set for him to run another big race although whether he is now rated to his best is a concern – he has been peppering the place board for a while but is just giving the impression he is running out of improvement.
Transcendent is a horse I like and can be forgiven a poorer run last time given his draw. He has fared a bit better here and has Moreira up but isn’t as striking as the front two in the market, while Water Diviner is a potential improver up in trip at 1400 m. He has been showing up well in good company and has a solid draw here.
One at a bigger price I will mention is Sunny Boy, whose form this season is pretty rotten but who has won two barrier trials with ease since we last saw him. He has been well supported in the betting in previous races so it could be that he just shows more in his work than at the track, but given that past support and his barrier successes, it wouldn’t be the biggest shock to see him run very well.
Be sure to check back after the race to see how your tissue compared with the HK Tote odds (and the HK Tote odds corrected to a 100% book).