May 31– Betting Tissue Club race is race 9 from Sha Tin
This week’s betting tissue club race is Race 9 (the highly competitive Group Three Lion Rock Trophy). You can view all past races for the runners from the excellent hkjc.com website (click on highlighted link above first).
You can download the betting tissue club calculator (Excel file) here: Sha-Tin-May-31-R9-template
You will need to complete your tissue, save it using a unique file name, and then upload it to this webpage using the secure form below. You should only fill in the odds column (blue) in decimal form (other columns contain formulae that do the calculations for you).
Upload your form before midday (Irish/UK time) on Saturday. Submissions after this time won’t be included. Also remember to check back here later on Saturday to view the summary of all submissions and read my thoughts on the race..
Visit Betting Tissue Club HK for more information on how the Club works.
Betting Tissue Summary
Thanks to the five people who submitted tissues this week (six with mine).
The median odds for each horse work out to a tissue of around 96.7%, which is a bit too generous. As such, you’d expect available odds to be a bit shorter than what appears in that column.
|
HORSE
|
CONTRIBUTORS |
Median |
HK TOTE |
HK TOTE 100% |
|||||||
| THP | CD | CJH | HKR | SB | SR | ||||||
| Southern Legend | 8.5 | 4.6 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 20.7 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 7.7 | ||
| Ka Ying Star | 8.5 | 6.9 | 10.3 | 8 | 7.8 | 29.6 | 8.3 | 6.5 | 7.9 | ||
| Rattan | 13 | 9.8 | 14.5 | 20 | 43.2 | 23 | 17.3 | 18 | 22 | ||
| Harmony Victory | 11 | 11 | 9.3 | 8 | 24.8 | 17.2 | 11 | 8.5 | 10.4 | ||
| Elusive State | 34 | 41 | 40 | 30 | 53.7 | 69 | 40.5 | 44 | 53.7 | ||
| Fast Most Furious | 19 | 21 | 17 | 20 | 59.7 | 10.4 | 19.5 | 22 | 26.8 | ||
| Dances With Dragon | 13 | 9.3 | 10 | 10 | 15.1 | 5.2 | 10 | 22 | 26.8 | ||
| Beauty Legacy | 4.8 | 8 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 3 | 3.7 | ||
| Preciousship | 7 | 17 | 7.8 | 16 | 11.9 | 8.6 | 10.3 | 14 | 17.1 | ||
| Time To Celebrate | 26 | 19 | 10 | 100 | 17.8 | 7.4 | 18.4 | 25 | 30.5 | ||
| General’s Delight | 19 | 26 | 10.6 | 100 | 7.1 | 25.9 | 22.5 | 5.7 | 7 | ||
| Mean Per Runner Difference (%) | 3.3 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 6.8 | |||||
I thought Beauty Legacy ran a very good race when fifth last time (met all kinds of trouble in running) and provided he settles OK (has been a major problem, but better last time) he ought to be the one to beat under Moreira and from a good gate. If he settles the mile should be no issue and the framing of the weights in this contest look favourable for one of his talent.
Preciousship is a horse I really like and while he was a fraction disappointing last time he had a horrible draw and the race just didn’t pan out for him. He had been fiercely progressive prior to that and may well not have stopped improving yet. I also paid obvious respect to the two best horses in the race – Southern Legend and Ka Ying Star. The former’s defeat of Beauty Generation was no fluke based on the speed rating he ran, while the latter has been running in top company – largely with credit – all season. Both can run well but giving weight away (especially the lumps of it that Southern Legend must shoulder) against horses this good is never easy in HK.
Harmony Victory is a threat at his best and shouldn’t be underestimated, although it has been a little while since he tasted competitive action (won a very weak barrier trial as expected fairly recently), while Dances With Dragon has looked a much-improved horse the last twice but must carry the wave into Sha Tin which hasn’t seen him at his best previously. Also worth mentioning is General’s Delight, who won a strong race nicely last time. He has a big future and isn’t one I’d write off, but he is technically very badly treated at these weights and is therefore hard to put in too short.
Be sure to check back after the race to see how your tissue compared with the HK Tote odds (and the HK Tote odds corrected to a 100% book).