April 19 — Betting Tissue Club race is race 9 from Sha Tin
This week’s betting tissue club race is Race 9 from Sha Tin (the competitive Class 2 Cornwall Handicap). You can view all past races for the runners from the excellent hkjc.com website (click on highlighted link above and then on each runner).
You can download the betting tissue club calculator (Excel file) here: STApril19Race9
You will need to complete your tissue, save it using a unique file name, and then upload it to this webpage using the secure form below. You should only fill in the odds column (blue) in decimal form (other columns contain formulae that do the calculations for you).
Upload your form before midday (BST / Irish and UK time) on Saturday. Submissions after this time won’t be included. Also remember to check back here later on Saturday to view the summary of all submissions and read my thoughts on the race..
Upload form
For more complete information on how the Betting Tissue Club HK works, click here.
Betting Tissue Summary
Thanks as always to everyone who took part. A total of eight people submitted tissues (nine with mine).
Below is the summary table of all the tissues. This week’s race presented a challenge given that it is an AW race, and there is less data (and/or form) to work with on this surface.
The median odds for each horse work out to a tissue of around 97%, which is overly generous but within hailing distance of a fair tissue.
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HORSE |
CONTRIBUTORS’ TISSUE PRICES (100% BOOKS)
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| THP | SL | X | SB | HKR | SR | JC | H | RN | Median | HK TOTE | HK TOTE 100% | |
| Gunnison | 4.7 | 251 | 8.5 | 10.9 | 7 | 12.5 | 8 | 6 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 5.5 | 6.3 |
| Kings Shield | 29 | 7.9 | 7 | 10.8 | 24 | 7.4 | 26 | 16 | 10.4 | 10.8 | 6.4 | 23.3 |
| Mission Tycoon | 51 | 208 | 151 | 106.0 | 60 | 79 | 46 | 16 | 28.4 | 60 | 66 | 30.6 |
| Encore Boy | 7.5 | 8.2 | 6.5 | 15.0 | 3.5 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 8.5 | 7 | 9.6 | 9.3 |
| Fortune Booth | 17 | 3.6 | 21 | 13.8 | 25 | 8.5 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 101.7 |
| Turin Redstar | 151 | 823 | 251 | 77.3 | 60 | 34 | 41 | 201 | 30 | 77.3 | 149 | 7.2 |
| Flashcard | 151 | 68 | 67 | 183.4 | 50 | 10.8 | 51 | 301 | 17.2 | 67 | 252 | 193.6 |
| Seven Heavens | 12 | 17 | 12 | 16.4 | 10 | 11.8 | 8.5 | 19 | 11.3 | 12 | 22 | 9.8 |
| Winner Supreme | 9 | 7.9 | 11 | 20.0 | 16 | 13.2 | 6 | 101 | 13.9 | 13.2 | 6.9 | 10.4 |
| Massive Pocket | 12 | 14 | 13 | 4.6 | 10 | 9.9 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 26 | 3.4 |
| Refined Treasure | 101 | 337 | 51 | 52.4 | 80 | 59 | 81 | 301 | 28.4 | 80 | 200 | 69.9 |
| Will Power | 4.1 | 5.2 | 4 | 3.3 | 6 | 9.1 | 8 | 4.5 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 6.3 |
| Mean Per Runner Difference (%) | 4.4 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 7.4 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 5.1 | ||
I made Will Power favourite based on his rapid progression on the AW over this distance, and the race ought to be run to suit as it looks like having a solid tempo and he typically sits in mid-division before coming home strongly. This is a much stiffer test than he has been used to but he fairly bolted up in Class 3 last time and may well be up to this grade.
Gunnison was next in for me given that he has the plum draw, has slipped to a competitive mark, and has Joao Moreira on board. He also ran really well over C&D when second fairly recently and he had the ultra-consistent Encore Boy just behind that day. That form looks solid with the latter also respected here. He, like Will Power, typically comes home well from off the pace and he has been running really well and returning good speed ratings under these conditions all season.
I would expect Winner Supreme to blitz out and try to make all. He has also run good speed ratings under these conditions and would have been shorter but for his nasty looking draw, which leaves no margin for error, and for the talented closers in against him. Massive Pocket has been in top form of late but on the turf. He ran well enough the last time he ran on the AW so isn’t one to take lightly but the others with recent top form on the AW are of course more solid.
Seven Heavens is in the mix on my ratings with a tad more needed but he has Purton on board and is capable of a very good run, so could well be a shortener. Of the others, the one I struggled most with was King’s Shield. He had looked out of form a little bit earlier this season before a much better run lately. He is talented and I may well be too big about him in my tissue as a result, but I have a suspicion he is at his best on a sloppy track and am sure that this trip is shorter than ideal.
Be sure to check back after the race to see how your tissue compared with the HK Tote odds (and the HK Tote odds corrected to a 100% book).