May 3 — Betting Tissue Club race is race 9 from Sha Tin
This week’s betting tissue club race is Race 9 (the highly competitive Class 1 Amber Handicap). You can view all past races for the runners from the excellent hkjc.com website (click on highlighted link above first).
You can download the betting tissue club calculator (Excel file) here: ST R9 May 9 template
You will need to complete your tissue, save it using a unique file name, and then upload it to this webpage using the secure form below. You should only fill in the odds column (blue) in decimal form (other columns contain formulae that do the calculations for you).
Upload your form before midday (Irish/UK time) on Friday. Submissions after this time won’t be included. Also remember to check back here later on Friday to view the summary of all submissions and read my thoughts on the race..
Upload form
Visit Betting Tissue Club HK for more information on how the Club works but be aware this week the action is on Saturday (not Sunday as usual), so all submissions will need to be made by noon (Irish / UK) time on Friday May 8.
Betting Tissue Summary
Thanks as always to everyone who took part this week. A total of seven people submitted tissues (eight with mine).
The median odds for each horse work out to a tissue of around 93%, which is way too optimistic. As such, ‘fair’ prices would be expected to be shorter odds in most cases.
|
HORSE
|
CONTRIBUTORS |
Median |
HK TOTE |
HK TOTE 100% |
|||||||
| THP | SB | HKR | CJH | SR | SL | JC | CD | ||||
| Beauty Legacy | 5 | 5.1 | 4 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 4.4 |
| Time To Celebrate | 21 | 23.8 | 25 | 11.5 | 370 | 12 | 7 | 29 | 22.4 | 14 | 17.2 |
| Good Standing | 17 | 45.3 | 25 | 12.5 | 18.8 | 9.5 | 41 | 81 | 21.9 | 14 | 17.2 |
| Decrypt | 8 | 5.3 | 6 | 18 | 6.8 | 5.5 | 8 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 7 | 8.6 |
| California Whip | 15 | 29.6 | 30 | 13.3 | 32.3 | 19 | 31 | 67 | 29.8 | 16 | 19.7 |
| Dragon General | 67 | 130.6 | 12 | 14.5 | 6.6 | 26 | 37 | 17 | 21.5 | 47 | 57.8 |
| Kings Shield | 34 | 21.7 | 20 | 35 | 23.5 | 101 | 41 | 34 | 34 | 85 | 104.6 |
| Amazing Plus One | 101 | 32.4 | 80 | 27 | 6.9 | 61 | 23 | 21 | 29.7 | 201 | 247.2 |
| Arrogant | 67 | 32.6 | 80 | 71 | 34.2 | 81 | 51 | 36 | 59 | 96 | 118.1 |
| Buddies | 10 | 4.2 | 8 | 11 | 8.1 | 12 | 15 | 8.5 | 9.3 | 3.9 | 4.8 |
| Morethanlucky | 21 | 123.1 | 70 | 13.3 | 45.2 | 31 | 101 | 181 | 57.6 | 13 | 16 |
| Ballistic King | 4.4 | 10.4 | 8 | 6.6 | 11.9 | 8 | 5 | 4.5 | 7.3 | 6.5 | 8 |
| Transcendent | 15 | 17 | 20 | 10.5 | 37.7 | 41 | 15 | 101 | 18.5 | 14 | 17.2 |
| Mean Per Runner Difference (%) | 2.5 | 2.9 | 3 | 4 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 4.6 | |||
I made Ballistic King my favourite at 4.4 and would have gone even shorter if he had landed a slightly easier draw. However, given his running style of mid-prominent, I would think he shouldn’t really be beaten by the draw (gate 9) and I was really taken by the way he came home to win a hot race over this trip last time. That was his first crack at 1400 m (7f) and I expect him to win more big races at the trip in time to come.
Beauty Legacy was next in for me. He has run some top races already, has a handy draw and Moreira in the plate, so there’s lots to like. The big concern with him is his keenness – he has refused to settle on occasion and while he has still run well (as when second to Ballistic King last time) when pulling too hard, it is hampering his chances. If Moreira can get him to switch off, he should hit the frame at the very least.
The only other one I have in at single figures is Decrypt, who has hit the frame four times from six starts, and who has Purton on top and a lovely draw from which to race. He really ought to be peppering the podium again, although I’m just ever so slightly suspicious as to how much he is putting in. There are no obvious excuses here, so I will withhold judgement until after this one.
As always, there are plenty of others at this level that can hit the board if putting their best feet forward. Buddies is certainly on the list. He has been running well all season and is often underrated in the market. Based on his second-place finish two spins back he has a right chance in this with his claiming rider taking off 10 lb and he should have no issue grabbing the lead as he likes from gate 4.
Transcendent is a good horse worthy of respect and this step up to 1400 m (7f) might well suit him but he has a tricky draw, while the likes of California Whip and Morethanlucky are on fair marks if rediscovering their best.
I am loath to put too much stock on barrier trials, but neither of the HK debutants, Amazing One Plus (Irish readers will know him as the formerly smart Hazarpour) or Arrogant have looked naturals in their preps. The betting will be interesting for both.
Be sure to check back after the race to see how your tissue compared with the HK Tote odds (and the HK Tote odds corrected to a 100% book).