May 17 — Betting Tissue Club race is race 9 from Sha Tin
This week’s betting tissue club race is Race 9 (the highly competitive Class 3 Sham Chung Handicap). You can view all past races for the runners from the excellent hkjc.com website (click on highlighted link above first).
You can download the betting tissue club calculator (Excel file) here: ST R9 May 17 template
You will need to complete your tissue, save it using a unique file name, and then upload it to this webpage using the secure form below. You should only fill in the odds column (blue) in decimal form (other columns contain formulae that do the calculations for you).
Upload your form before midday (Irish/UK time) on Saturday. Submissions after this time won’t be included. Also remember to check back here later on Saturday to view the summary of all submissions and read my thoughts on the race..
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Visit Betting Tissue Club HK for more information on how the Club works.
Betting Tissue Summary
Thanks as always to everyone who took part this week with a special shout out to CJH, who always puts in a lot of effort to his tissue and kindly shares his thoughts behind each pricing decision on Twitter. A total of seven people submitted tissues (eight with mine).
The median odds for each horse work out to a tissue of around 98.5%, which is pretty much a fair book. As such, one could hope to use these odds to pick out potential value if any of the runners are significantly bigger in the market than indicated here (assuming of course that we, as a group, are somewhat clued-up).
|
HORSE
|
CONTRIBUTORS |
Median |
HK TOTE |
HK TOTE 100% |
|||||||
| THP | WL | RN | HKR | CJH | CD | SR | JC | ||||
| Lobo’s Legend | 8 | 7 | 10.5 | 6 | 14 | 4.5 | 11 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 10 |
| Taking Aim | 4.8 | 4.5 | 5.8 | 8 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 9.4 | 13 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 4 |
| Hello Daddy | 23 | 14 | 17.8 | 80 | 16 | 26 | 9.7 | 41 | 20.4 | 29 | 35.4 |
| Smoothies | 7 | 8 | 4.8 | 5 | 6.5 | 14 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 6 | 8.4 | 10.3 |
| Picken | 11 | 8 | 9.5 | 12 | 10 | 7.5 | 9 | 15 | 9.8 | 10 | 12.2 |
| High Rise Soldier | 21 | 12 | 9.9 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 21 | 13 | 12.5 | 18 | 22 |
| Natural Winner | 101 | 50 | 500.0 | 100 | 145 | 201 | 417 | 101 | 123 | 201 | 245.6 |
| Chikorita | 101 | 50 | 16.7 | 60 | 100 | 166 | 50 | 201 | 80 | 139 | 169.9 |
| Ka Ying Excellent | 8 | 14 | 13.3 | 7 | 9.5 | 10 | 10.1 | 8 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 5.1 |
| Team Power | 6 | 10 | 10.4 | 12 | 7.5 | 7 | 10.7 | 4 | 8.8 | 5 | 6.1 |
| Triple Triple | 29 | 14 | 37.4 | 30 | 11.5 | 18 | 7 | 15 | 16.5 | 26 | 31.8 |
| Mean Per Runner Difference (%) | 2.1 | 4.4 | 5 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 4.9 | |||
I thought this was one of the most challenging races we have had to price up because there were so many potential winners in the line-up.
In the end, I went with Taking Aim as my market leader as he seemed to have the most in his favour: he has the best draw and Purton up, and has has been running with credit in higher class races. Next in I had Team Power, who looks progressive and also has a nice draw having won quite takingly at a lower level last time. He will find this hotter but has very little weight on his back and ought to make a good fist of it.
Next in I had Smoothies, who ran a mighty race when beating all bar Mighty Giant (a horse going places) over course and distance last time. He had to use up petrol early to grab the lead from a wide draw but fares better here and is dangerous to discount (the 7lb claimer was on board last time too, so I wouldn’t see that as a negative in any way). He also ran a time over 0.6 seconds faster than Team Power on the same day in doing that.
Lobo’s Legend has his chance dropping in grade, having had some horror draws in better races of late. He has shown more than enough at this level to suggest he will win when things fall right and he has drawn well. I have him at the same point in the market as Ka Ying Excellent, who has a bit of ground to make up on Team Power on their latest running but is another horse firmly on the up and one who was perhaps caught out of his ground a little last time.
Picken was next in and is a big enough price on my tissue given his solid form at this level of late and with Moreira on board. His price merely reflects the strength of the contest, in which I put in Hello Daddy, High Rise Soldier and Triple Triple at biggish prices despite thinking they are plausible winners at this level in time.
Be sure to check back after the race to see how your tissue compared with the HK Tote odds (and the HK Tote odds corrected to a 100% book).