Thankfully the majority of the runners have a relatively comprehensive back-history of running in Graded\/Group\/Listed company and a lot of RPR data to work with, which means this should be a relatively good race to perform this sort of analysis on.<\/p>\n
Data and Method<\/strong><\/p>\n I used exactly the same base method as described previously (see the Queen Anne post <\/a>for more detailed information). More briefly, I:<\/p>\n In the above figure you can see the probability of Matterhorn running to a specific RPR in the Summer Mile (grey bars and curve), along with Beat The Bank (royal blue curve); Accidental Agent (light blue curve); Suedois (red curve); Tip Two Win (black curve); Wadilsafa (blue curve); Zaaki (yellow curve); Awesometank (green curve).<\/p>\n Results<\/strong><\/p>\n According to the simulations this is a more open race than the bookmakers\u2019 odds would imply, with Matterhorn favourite at just under 4-1 (4.9).\u2014see Table below.<\/p>\n Horse<\/strong><\/p>\n \u00a0<\/strong><\/td>\n Fair Win Odds<\/strong><\/td>\n Fair Place Odds<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n <\/p>\n There are a number of additional points of note. These include:<\/p>\n Limitations<\/strong><\/p>\n RPRs are a relatively solid way of assessing a horse\u2019s ability based on past performances, but there are examples when you should be less confident in their use than others.<\/p>\n Beat The Bank seems to be a bigger price than I would have expected based on his ability to hit the frame and to win the race. This is due to the simulations weighting his poor runs (low RPRs) equally when compared with his better ones. That is of course fair, but I suspect he is less likely to run a poor RPR in this company compared to the more competitive Grade Ones that have occasionally seen him run disappointingly. As a result, I am wary of taking his \u201cfair win\u201d and \u201cfair place\u201d odds too literally here, and expect he has a much better chance than they imply.<\/p>\n Accidental Agent refused to race last time, which presented a huge challenge regarding how to feed that into the simulation. I eventually decided to give him a pass \u2013 rather than entering a 0 \u2013 as I felt the latter option would have skewed his odds unrepresentatively when taking his ability into account. Naturally, I would be wary of backing him based on that latest misdemeanour.<\/p>\n Advised bet(s) and staking plans<\/strong><\/p>\n I am trialling this simulation method from a punting point of view, and am tracking advised bets<\/a> via a:<\/p>\n a) Points-based staking plan\u00a0<\/strong>(based on the perceived value available \u2014\u00a0see here<\/a>\u00a0for more info) beginning at a P&L of 0<\/p>\n\n
![\"\"](\"http:\/\/thehelpfulpunter.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/SummerMile.jpeg\")
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\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n \n Beat The Bank<\/strong><\/td>\n 9.6<\/strong><\/td>\n 3.8<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Accidental Agent<\/strong><\/td>\n 6.8<\/strong><\/td>\n 2.7<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Matterhorn<\/strong><\/td>\n 4.9<\/strong><\/td>\n 1.36<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Suedois<\/strong><\/td>\n 5.7<\/strong><\/td>\n 2.04<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Tip Two Win<\/strong><\/td>\n 9.9<\/strong><\/td>\n 3.8<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Wadilsafa<\/strong><\/td>\n 10.1<\/strong><\/td>\n 3.5<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Zaaki<\/strong><\/td>\n 6.4<\/strong><\/td>\n 2.1<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Awesometank<\/strong><\/td>\n 78<\/strong><\/td>\n 8.3<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n \n