This week’s betting tissue club race is Race 7 (the Class 3 Li Cup). You can view all past races for the runners from the excellent hkjc.com website (click on highlighted link above first).
You can download the betting tissue club calculator (Excel file) here: Sha-Tin-June-14-R7-template
You will need to complete your tissue, save it using a unique file name, and then upload it to this webpage using the secure form below. You should only fill in the odds column (blue) in decimal form (other columns contain formulae that do the calculations for you).
Upload your form before midday (Irish/UK time) on Saturday. Submissions after this time won’t be included. Also remember to check back here later on Saturday to view the summary of all submissions and read my thoughts on the race..
Visit Betting Tissue Club HK for more information on how the Club works.
Betting Tissue Summary
Thanks to the two people who submitted tissues this week (three with mine).
The median odds for each horse work out to a tissue of around 99.5%, which is very close to a fair book.
|
HORSE
|
CONTRIBUTORS |
Median |
HK TOTE |
HK TOTE 100% |
|||||||
| THP | HKR | CS | |||||||||
| Champion Supreme | 6 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 6.3 | 7.7 | |||||
| Generous Charity | 101 | 99 | 67 | 99 | 101 | 123.2 | |||||
| Good Omen | 21 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 8.7 | 10.6 | |||||
| Defining Moment | 5.2 | 9 | 4 | 5.2 | 7.7 | 9.4 | |||||
| Gameplayer Times | 19 | 99 | 34 | 34 | 28 | 34.2 | |||||
| Super Elegance | 4.4 | 4 | 6 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 4.1 | |||||
| Above | 8 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 8.5 | |||||
| Red Elysees | 17 | 40 | 26 | 26 | 8.1 | 9.9 | |||||
| God Of Dragon | 11 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 5.8 | 7.1 | |||||
| Dynamic Eagle | 29 | 50 | 19 | 29 | 27 | 32.9 | |||||
| Mean Per Runner Difference (%) | 3.1 | 2.9 | 4 | ||||||||
I made Super Elegance favourite in my tissue based on his good run last time in a race involving a few of these. He was stopped a few times in the straight when needing some room to make his run before coming home as well as anything to be beaten very little at the line. With Purton on board here and better luck in the run, he ought to take some stopping.
Defining Moment will rightly be popular as he seeks a fourth win in five spins, but he is up in the weights for his latest win and would have a similar chance to Champion Supreme, who is another obvious key contender. Above has been a tad disappointing the last twice after bolting up in a lower grade but there is a suspicion this course suits him better than Happy Valley and with a useful claimer taking 7lb off his back, he can go well.
God Of Dragon has been backed every time he has run but it’s hard to see why he ought to win this based on his recent runs when behind a number of these, and having not had bad luck in running in most of those races.
Good Omen has become dangerously handicapped but didn’t show enough for me last time when having the run of things to think he is ready to pop up again. The one I would respect at potentially big odds is Red Elysees, who has had a torrid time of it at Happy Valley the last twice. He has been starved of room when needing it in both those spins and the longer straight and more sweeping turns of Sha Tin ought to play more to his grinding style. Don’t discount him.
Be sure to check back after the race to see how your tissue compared with the HK Tote odds (and the HK Tote odds corrected to a 100% book).